Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf24f…15b2 other 1648 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 593d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,194 (-18%) realized −$2,014 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%638W / 962L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$2,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$248
14 days+$294
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$945
sports 18% −$432
crypto 10% +$650
politics 6% −$286
world 1% −$69
finance 0% +$20
tech 0% −$14
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.8% -22.0% 36% 33% -28.4%
≤30d 47 -5.2% -14.2% 38% 36% +20.6%
≤90d 122 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 39% -4.1%
all 1600 -2.8% -12.1% 40% 39% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 39% -18.2%
10% -20.5% 38% -26.1%
15% -28.2% 35% -33.2%
20% -35.2% 31% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$2,044
Realized−$2,014
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses638 / 962
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions47
Markets (closed)1600 / 1648
History coverage594d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 1600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $709 $673 −$36 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $119 $191 +$72 (+61%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $207 $162 −$44 (-21%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $242 $154 −$87 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $136 $140 +$4 (+3%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+67%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 41¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+58%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 58¢ 54¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 72¢ $15 $29 +$13 (+88%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 14¢ 35¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+146%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 38¢ 66¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$16 -32%
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$13 -26%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 20 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$25 -48%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $51 −$14 -26%
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 $0 -1%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 +$8 +27%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $113 −$24 -22%
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $38 +$15 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$11 -21%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 07 $186 +$624 +334%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -42%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 30 $19 −$15 -81%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 30 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $294 +$360 +122%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 28 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 28 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $35 38m
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 41m
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 43m
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 43m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 7¢ $38 1h
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $39 2h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $83 10h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 27h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 35h
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 35h
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,044.33 · official $2,044.31 (match) · 3500 history records