Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F2 0xf254…e6d5 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized −$37 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,056now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$47
crypto 6% +$3
sports 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -12.0% -20.4% 0% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 2 -56.0% -60.2% 0% 0% -59.6%
≤90d 2 -56.0% -60.2% 0% 0% -59.6%
all 2 -56.0% -60.2% 0% 0% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.2% 0% -59.6%
10% -64.0% 0% -63.5%
15% -67.5% 0% -67.0%
20% -70.7% 0% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$17 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,056
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $308 $509 +$201 (+65%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $220 $142 −$77 (-35%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $118 $92 −$26 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $87 $71 −$16 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+5%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $105 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 47h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $59 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $148 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $70 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $127 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $34 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 11d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 11d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $199 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,056.27 · official $1,056.27 (match) · 31 history records