Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf254…76de world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$1
world 24% +$3
other 22% −$1
economics 8% $0
tech 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 45% 0% -8.5%
all 31 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage328d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $58 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $6 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $35 +$3 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $12 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 27 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $72 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $6 +$1 +10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 25 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 4m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 32h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $31 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $38 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records