Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf255…a2f1 crypto 64 markets active 1d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$626 (+8%) realized +$610 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$210
14 days+$504
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$351
sports 35% +$40
crypto 15% +$381
world 3% −$254
politics 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -40.2% -45.9% 32% 32% -12.4%
≤30d 61 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 34% -4.8%
≤90d 61 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 34% -4.8%
all 61 +6.7% -3.4% 41% 34% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 34% -4.8%
10% -12.7% 33% -13.9%
15% -21.1% 30% -22.2%
20% -28.8% 26% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$82 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$610
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage10d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $58 $62 +$5 (+8%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $38 $48 +$10 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$314 +62%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$75 +74%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $344 +$503 +146%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$54 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $245 −$245 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $875 +$476 +54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$90 -87%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $254 −$254 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $523 +$246 +47%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $433 +$344 +79%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $303 +$147 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$21 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 +$181 +86%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$102 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $111 +$88 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $43 +$67 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 +$641 +2402%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $102 25h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 92¢ $176 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $304 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 17¢ $51 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 83¢ $847 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $344 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $203 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 15¢ $30 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,352 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $875 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $770 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $523 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $245 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $127 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $306 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $307 6d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $450 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.95 · official $114.95 (match) · 188 history records