Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf255…a978 weather 39 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-16%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$8
crypto 18% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -22.8% -30.1% 26% 15% -28.9%
≤30d 39 -22.8% -30.1% 26% 15% -28.9%
≤90d 39 -22.8% -30.1% 26% 15% -28.9%
all 39 -22.8% -30.1% 26% 15% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 15% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 8% -35.7%
15% -42.9% 5% -41.9%
20% -48.5% 5% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records