Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf256…26d0 other 51 markets active 12h ago coverage 291d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$133 (+26%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$119
14 days+$178
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$143
other 24% +$5
tech 11% +$38
weather 1% −$5
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +52.7% +38.2% 27% 27% +36.6%
≤30d 30 +45.7% +31.8% 27% 27% +22.3%
≤90d 30 +45.7% +31.8% 27% 27% +22.3%
all 43 +37.5% +24.4% 37% 37% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 37% +24.5%
10% +12.5% 33% +12.6%
15% +1.6% 30% +1.7%
20% -8.3% 26% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 51
History coverage291d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$57 +1843%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $10 +$55 +537%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
US x China tariff agreement by November 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Doge ETF approved in 2025? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -64%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a hurricane form by September 30? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $30 −$7 -24%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $61 +$67 +109%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $51 −$42 -82%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Sep 23 $53 +$39 +74%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 16 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Klarna IPO in 2025? Sep 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Selena Gomez married in 2025? Sep 05 $1 +$1 +36%
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? Sep 05 $2 +$1 +27%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 15? Sep 04 $4 +$1 +36%
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30? Sep 04 $2 +$2 +62%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Sep 04 $1 $0 -2%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30? Sep 04 $1 $0 +21%
Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31? Sep 03 $3 −$1 -16%
Sabrina Carpenter's 'Man's Best Friend' >375k first week sales? Sep 03 $2 +$2 +127%
Will there be a Powerball jackpot winner by September 28? Aug 31 $1 $0 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 8¢ $5 39h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end BUY 6¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will United States vs. Para BUY 8¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 15¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 73¢ $79 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.54 · official $4.54 (match) · 95 history records