Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf257…ec1e
other · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$104
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage220d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $990 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 08 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 27 $576 −$4 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 08 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 08 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 08 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $55 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $136 +$3 +2%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 14 $70 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 30 $65 +$1 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Dec 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 23 $39 +$3 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 09 $28 +$12 +43%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Nov 30 $26 +$2 +6%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $26 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 37% −$10
other 27% −$4
sports 17% −$3
world 12% −$4
tech 4% +$24
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 26m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $104 26m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $104 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $103 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $104 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $110 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $107 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $989 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $990 37d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $991 37d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $993 37d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $993 37d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $995 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $994 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $996 37d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $996 37d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 99¢ $998 37d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 37d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 37d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $999 38d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 38d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 98¢ $106 44d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $0 48d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $106 58d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $566 66d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $568 66d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $568 67d
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $568 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 21 -0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -1.0% -10.5% 24% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.67 · official $103.67 (match) · 87 history records