Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf25b…82d0 other 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,707 (-3%) realized −$1,563 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate31%170W / 381L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day51.9pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$492
sports 26% +$986
world 11% +$38
politics 10% −$278
finance 7% −$59
tech 6% −$21
culture 4% −$54
crypto 1% −$23
weather 0% −$4
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -32.4% -38.9% 28% 6% -11.7%
≤30d 310 -25.2% -32.4% 27% 8% -6.9%
≤90d 551 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 10% -9.1%
all 551 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 10% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 8% -17.8%
15% -40.8% 6% -25.8%
20% -46.6% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$1,563
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses170 / 381
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions27
Markets (closed)551 / 579
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day51.9
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $181 $179 −$2 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 91¢ 92¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $22 $34 +$11 (+49%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $19 $27 +$8 (+43%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $36 $24 −$12 (-33%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 11¢ 10¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-21%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? No 6¢ 4¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? No 2¢ 2¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-29%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+23%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by June 30? No 90¢ 48¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $128 $2 −$126 (-99%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Arsenal? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Chelsea? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Jennifer Lopez perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 20 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $233 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $28 +$10 +33%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by June 30? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -60%
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh Jun 19 $54 +$2 +3%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Inter Milan? Jun 19 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $104 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 19 $102 +$8 +8%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $337 −$10 -3%
Will Wyndham Clark lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Adriana Accorsi win the Governor of Goiás election? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -37%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 19 $222 −$11 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 18? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Liverpool? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Bayern Munich? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Manchester United? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Manchester City? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? Jun 18 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 18 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Rafael Leao join Bayern Munich? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 18 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 18 $59 −$9 -16%
Will Dean Henderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $53 −$3 -6%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Kevin Castaño be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -74%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 18 $209 −$9 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 17 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Samú Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Matheus Nunes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $965 +$2 +0%
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao to win the second half? SELL No 96¢ $170 0m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 96¢ $170 13m
Curaçao to win the second half? SELL No 96¢ $309 15m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 96¢ $65 24m
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $12 43m
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY No 96¢ $244 50m
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY No 91¢ $82 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $16 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $165 3h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $193 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $46 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $114 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $33 3h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $20 4h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 5h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 5h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 5h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 5h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $22 6h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 6h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $184 6h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 7h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $654.45 · official $656.48 (match) · 3500 history records