Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf25b…716a world 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%27W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$9
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$15
other 19% −$1
politics 18% −$15
sports 11% +$6
crypto 1% +$7
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 29 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 76 +0.3% -9.3% 28% 4% -9.7%
all 99 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses27 / 72
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage339d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $137 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $137 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $241 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $608 +$5 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $323 +$8 +3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $130 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $130 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $183 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $284 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $165 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $288 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $121 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $165 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $127 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $255 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $290 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $133 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $128 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $257 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $287 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $158 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $133 +$5 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $121 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $185 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $271 −$30 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $144 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $132 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $24 +$4 +15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $271 −$1 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $141 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $307 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $316 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $14 +$3 +18%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $291 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $695 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $285 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $143 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $103 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $2 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $135 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $137 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $87 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $87 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $109 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $72 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $66 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $134 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $120 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $103 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $103 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $152 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $151 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $135 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $110 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $148 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $143 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $130 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $130 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $130 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.06 · official $136.63 (match) · 474 history records