Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf25d…9d7a crypto 714 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$359 (-0%) realized −$426 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate88%615W / 81L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$423
14 days−$325
30 days−$1,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$452
finance 4% +$148
other 2% +$74
sports 1% −$468
politics 0% −$1
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.0% -12.3% 82% 23% -13.9%
≤30d 224 +1.1% -8.5% 87% 30% -11.4%
≤90d 626 -0.8% -10.2% 88% 27% -9.9%
all 696 -0.3% -9.8% 88% 28% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 28% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 15% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 8% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$56 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$4,117
Realized−$426
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses615 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)696 / 714
History coverage99d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $1,400 $1,388 −$12 (-1%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? No 95¢ 93¢ $600 $591 −$9 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $400 $427 +$27 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 59¢ 97¢ $100 $164 +$64 (+64%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $200 $142 −$58 (-29%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$67 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$45 +87%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$73 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $900 +$4 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $501 −$500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $400 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 16 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $600 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $505 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $203 −$102 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $900 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 12? Jun 13 $500 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U BUY 2¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $29 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $19 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $14 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $88 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 14h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $55 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 59¢ $103 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,116.54 · official $4,126.49 (match) · 1756 history records