Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf262…4577
crypto · 246 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$54 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$405
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses187 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)242 / 246
History coverage35d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 4 History 242 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$75
14 days+$78
30 days−$694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 79¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$4
other 8% +$17
world 8% −$73
sports 5% +$60
politics 2% −$21
tech 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +3.0% -6.8% 87% 20% +14.1%
≤30d 149 -22.7% -30.0% 64% 17% -48.4%
≤90d 242 +1.9% -7.8% 77% 46% -10.9%
all 242 +1.9% -7.8% 77% 46% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -10.9%
10% -16.6% 36% -19.4%
15% -24.7% 23% -27.2%
20% -32.1% 13% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.92 · official $404.44 (match) · 422 history records