Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf262…c56d other 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,884 (-53%) realized −$5,846 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%76W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,398
7 days−$3,544
14 days−$3,540
30 days−$3,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$762
sports 11% −$104
politics 7% +$419
crypto 0% +$2
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -39.4% -45.2% 27% 26% -63.1%
≤30d 177 -32.6% -39.0% 27% 25% -63.1%
≤90d 295 -36.3% -42.3% 22% 21% -37.2%
all 349 -29.5% -36.2% 22% 21% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 21% -34.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 20% -40.4%
15% -47.9% 18% -46.2%
20% -53.0% 16% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$36 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized−$5,846
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses76 / 273
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions42
Markets (closed)349 / 343
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $319 $213 −$106 (-33%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 36¢ $56 $102 +$46 (+82%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 22¢ 35¢ $60 $97 +$37 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $28 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $24 $29 +$6 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $33 $27 −$5 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $12 $25 +$13 (+114%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+71%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $11 −$3 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon tweet between 390 and 419 times August 29–September 5? Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 20 $18 +$41 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 20 $4 −$20 -488%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times August 29–September 5? Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25? Jun 20 $89 −$188 -212%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 500 and 519 times September 5–12? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15? Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 22–August 29? Jun 20 $126 −$34 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1150 and 1199 times September 1–30? Jun 20 $44 −$34 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30? Jun 20 $34 −$42 -123%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11? Jun 20 $49 −$339 -688%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times August 29–September 5? Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8? Jun 20 $12 +$7 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30? Jun 20 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 20 $23 −$58 -252%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22? Jun 20 $14 −$27 -202%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Jun 20 $165 −$155 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 20 $15 −$28 -187%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 22–August 29? Jun 20 $363 −$298 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 +$18 +785%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$15 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $12 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $7 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $8 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $10 2h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 96¢ $13 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $42 2h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $10 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $900.81 · official $900.81 (match) · 3500 history records