Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf263…e9c1 crypto 1509 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,512 (-19%) realized −$13,540 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%782W / 723L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$254est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$4,792
crypto 23% −$218
other 12% +$704
world 12% −$1,015
politics 2% +$174
tech 1% +$149
finance 0% +$70
culture 0% −$200
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 57% -17.5%
≤30d 70 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 56% -36.8%
≤90d 465 -1.7% -11.1% 69% 42% -17.6%
all 1505 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 43% -16.1%
10% -19.2% 37% -24.1%
15% -27.0% 34% -31.5%
20% -34.2% 31% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$38 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$13,540
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses782 / 723
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1505 / 1509
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 76¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 +$35 +35%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$62 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$60 +30%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$62 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 +$140 +136%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$70 +69%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $919 −$730 -79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$83 -81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$30 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$55 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$156 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $306 +$157 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$41 +41%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$65 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $306 +$133 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$58 -57%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$65 -32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$41 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$7 -6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $205 +$154 +75%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $51 +$32 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$23 -22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $505 +$109 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$46 -45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $103 +$105 +102%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 +$56 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$40 +39%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $102 +$40 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $102 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $102 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $25 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 33¢ $103 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 36¢ $25 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $264 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $102 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $203 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $242 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $204 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $189 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $206 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $205 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $509 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 11¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 50¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $132 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $102 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.95 · official $177.95 · 3500 history records