Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf269…b117 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,760 (-29%) realized −$1,711 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1,138
sports 22% −$374
world 5% −$252
crypto 2% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -42.5%
≤30d 38 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -42.5%
≤90d 38 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -42.5%
all 38 -34.3% -40.6% 21% 21% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 21% -42.5%
10% -46.3% 21% -48.0%
15% -51.5% 18% -53.0%
20% -56.2% 18% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$119 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$1,711
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage6d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $480 $431 −$49 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $850 −$684 -80%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $184 −$149 -81%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $410 −$410 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $92 −$71 -77%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $103 −$13 -12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $542 +$491 +90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $219 +$424 +193%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $102 +$28 +27%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $122 +$158 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $144 −$144 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $191 −$191 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$42 +413%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $90 +$431 +479%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $191 −$191 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $493 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $443 22h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $88 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 43¢ $85 25h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $81 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $407 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $143 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $21 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $92 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $90 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $305 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $36 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 92¢ $927 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $135 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 40¢ $106 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.79 · official $458.73 · 112 history records