Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf26c…ebe5 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,169 (+14%) realized +$5,725 · open +$444
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%64W / 43L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$7,480now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$1,159
14 days+$1,942
30 days+$3,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$2,383
other 19% +$596
economics 16% −$36
politics 12% +$258
tech 8% +$475
finance 7% +$1,705
sports 3% +$669
crypto 2% −$71
culture 2% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.2% -11.6% 60% 50% +26.6%
≤30d 36 +2.3% -7.4% 58% 44% +17.6%
≤90d 79 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 41% +11.3%
all 107 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 36% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 36% +4.2%
10% -22.4% 25% -5.8%
15% -29.9% 20% -14.9%
20% -36.8% 14% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$56 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$7,480
Realized+$5,725
Unrealized+$444
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses64 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions19
Markets (closed)107 / 126
History coverage118d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $2,000 $2,117 +$117 (+6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $986 $977 −$8 (-1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $1,000 $974 −$26 (-3%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $506 $512 +$6 (+1%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 88¢ 87¢ $440 $435 −$5 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 48¢ 97¢ $200 $407 +$207 (+104%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 58¢ 64¢ $351 $387 +$36 (+10%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 55¢ 67¢ $273 $335 +$62 (+23%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $187 $231 +$44 (+24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $168 $181 +$13 (+8%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Yes 67¢ 58¢ $141 $122 −$19 (-13%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 34¢ 38¢ $102 $116 +$13 (+13%)
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $117 $114 −$3 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 31¢ 30¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 46¢ 97¢ $43 $89 +$46 (+108%)
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? No 64¢ 70¢ $44 $49 +$4 (+10%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 24¢ $56 $22 −$34 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Jun 22 $505 −$6 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,262 +$665 +53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $918 +$539 +59%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 17 $101 −$19 -19%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $20 +$5 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $200 +$27 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$78 +78%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $100 +$28 +28%
Will "Data Center" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $825M and $900M at mark Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Pod Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $750M and $825M at mark Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$392 +383%
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 13 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 13 $425 +$67 +16%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Jun 13 $71 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1,102 +$47 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $334 +$73 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $447 +$152 +34%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $342 +$27 +8%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $259 −$15 -6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 08 $112 −$112 -100%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $568 +$1,480 +261%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 06 $646 −$19 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 06 $2,912 +$14 +0%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $454 +$199 +44%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 15 $86 −$80 -93%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $400 +$9 +2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $300 +$11 +4%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$5 +5%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $151 −$59 -39%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $30 +$28 +93%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. SSC Bari end in a draw? May 09 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Cesena FC vs. Calcio Padova end in a draw? May 09 $79 +$21 +26%
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $85 +$15 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $237 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $355 2h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? SELL Yes 54¢ $498 2h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $355 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $300 3h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,003 22h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 53¢ $217 35h
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 52¢ $288 35h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $1,292 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $20 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $394 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $35 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $413 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $635 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $200 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $100 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $100 4d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 67¢ $82 5d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $204 6d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 6d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $443 6d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $280 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $17 7d
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY No 72¢ $20 7d
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No 81¢ $20 7d
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 84¢ $20 7d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 92¢ $20 7d
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 72¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,480.42 · official $7,480.42 (match) · 481 history records