Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf270…5294
other · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$8 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$53
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)8 / 19
History coverage133d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 11 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 66¢ $2 $18 +$16 (+776%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 60¢ 84¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 53¢ 45¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? No 69¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? SpaceX 84¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 15¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Yes 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 7? Yes 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Trump out as President by March 31? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 30, 2026? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Yes 16¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 7? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 03 $1 $0 +42%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% +$7
politics 8% −$2
world 8% −$5
weather 3% −$2
tech 3% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $2 59d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 59d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on April 7? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 68d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 68d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $5 78d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 90d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 90d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $5 90d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 97d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $16 97d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 102d
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? BUY SpaceX 84¢ $2 104d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY Yes $2 104d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 129d
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? SELL Up $0 129d
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 2? BUY Up 39¢ $2 130d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 132d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $3 132d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 133d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $2 133d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $2 133d
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese BUY No $1 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
≤30d 1 -67.3% -70.4% 0% 0% -70.4%
≤90d 3 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -78.6%
all 8 -78.2% -80.3% 12% 12% -84.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.3% 12% -84.6%
10% -82.1% 12% -86.1%
15% -83.9% 12% -87.4%
20% -85.5% 0% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.31 · official $54.03 (match) · 25 history records