Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F2 0xf270…1230 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$9per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$18

14 days+$18

30 days+$18

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-7.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+4.4%	-5.5%	55%	45%	+7.5%
≤30d	11	+4.4%	-5.5%	55%	45%	+7.5%
≤90d	14	+2.1%	-7.6%	57%	50%	-7.0%
all	14	+2.1%	-7.6%	57%	50%	-7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.6%	50%	-7.0%
10%	-16.5%	50%	-15.9%
15%	-24.5%	43%	-24.1%
20%	-31.9%	36%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage

Net worth$28

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 18

History coverage60d

Avg bet$9

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$8	$8	−$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$13	+85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$7	−$7	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$13	+246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	+$1	+8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 12	$11	+$5	+47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?	Apr 16	$20	−$19	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Apr 16	$6	+$3	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Apr 16	$5	+$1	+28%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	97¢	$28	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2	6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$18	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$3	22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$5	22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	93¢	$5	23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	92¢	$10	23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	48¢	$10	2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	96¢	$16	2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$10	59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$6	59d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	65¢	$11	59d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$5	59d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.56 · official $27.57 (match) · 32 history records