Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf273…9050 crypto 1669 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$587 (-4%) realized −$587 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%844W / 789L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$2
14 days−$43
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 +0.7% -8.9% 66% 62% -9.5%
≤30d 1218 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 1633 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 46% -13.0%
all 1633 -10.0% -18.6% 52% 46% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 46% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -21.4%
15% -33.5% 25% -29.0%
20% -40.0% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses844 / 789
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1633 / 1669
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1633 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$11 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records