Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf273…efe8 crypto 2034 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (323 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,133 (-10%) realized −$1,132 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%994W / 586L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day322.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,644
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (323 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1465 +20.4% +9.0% 63% 62% -0.9%
≤30d 1580 +20.2% +8.7% 63% 62% -1.6%
≤90d 1580 +20.2% +8.7% 63% 62% -1.6%
all 1580 +20.2% +8.7% 63% 62% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover322.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 62% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 60% -11.0%
15% -11.2% 57% -19.6%
20% -19.9% 52% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses994 / 586
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1580 / 2034
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day322.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 53¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.74 (match) · 3500 history records