Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf274…443e sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,580 (+4%) realized +$1,200 · open +$380
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%36W / 20L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$676per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$285
7 days+$1,516
14 days+$1,732
30 days+$1,732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$954
other 38% +$3,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.9% -13.1% 61% 56% -3.6%
≤30d 56 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 59% -4.9%
≤90d 56 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 59% -4.9%
all 56 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 59% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 59% -4.9%
10% -16.9% 50% -14.0%
15% -25.0% 43% -22.3%
20% -32.3% 34% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$357 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$4,499
Realized+$1,200
Unrealized+$380
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses36 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage12d
Avg bet$676
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $2,975 $2,958 −$17 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 97¢ $1,144 $1,541 +$397 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez Jun 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $3,813 +$487 +13%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $251 −$248 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $303 −$281 -93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $605 −$600 -99%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 28 $91 −$90 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $300 +$238 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $480 +$381 +79%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,317 +$755 +23%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $202 +$120 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,197 −$1,181 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $588 +$301 +51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$120 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $303 +$178 +59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $303 +$13 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $257 −$254 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $232 +$125 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$137 +67%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $51 +$92 +180%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $502 +$82 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $254 +$152 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $152 −$130 -86%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $495 +$231 +47%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $484 +$58 +12%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,554 +$131 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $296 +$51 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,019 +$1,593 +40%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $768 −$734 -96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $155 +$116 +75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $381 −$378 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $506 +$327 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $856 +$262 +31%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $255 +$165 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $152 +$154 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $656 +$201 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $859 +$464 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $504 −$504 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $503 +$140 +28%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $199 +$110 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 48¢ $102 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $2,988 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $1,311 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 39¢ $84 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 88¢ $3,813 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Cameron Norrie 60¢ $251 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $21 22h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 73¢ $605 32h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY OlyBet SB 60¢ $91 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 55¢ $300 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $278 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $3,317 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 66¢ $1,010 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 62¢ $202 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $502 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $391 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $300 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $288 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $303 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Daniel Altmaier 39¢ $102 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 62¢ $303 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Qinwen Zheng 73¢ $316 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Qinwen Zheng 69¢ $303 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 67¢ $179 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 68¢ $78 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,499.14 · official $4,499.14 (match) · 118 history records