Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf279…e68f politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$717 (+1%) realized +$717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$986per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$64
other 36% +$83
sports 14% +$781
world 3% −$37
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -9.8% -18.4% 9% 3% -9.4%
all 130 +1.4% -8.3% 26% 12% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 12% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 8% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,487) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$6 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized+$717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage135d
Avg bet$986
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $834 $833 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $531 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,628 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $4,675 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,800 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 04 $936 +$1 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $528 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,210 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,414 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,331 +$386 +29%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,350 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,725 −$4 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $684 +$1 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,165 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,342 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $2,576 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,168 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $560 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $560 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $389 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $389 7h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $530 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $531 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $836 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $837 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $834 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,624 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,628 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,015 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,635 7d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,637 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,612 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,615 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,623 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,625 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,485 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,487 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,702 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,704 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,663 16d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,368 16d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,370 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.16 · official $833.16 (match) · 392 history records