Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf27a…5e6c crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+1%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$76
politics 9% −$269
crypto 5% −$191
world 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 71% -10.5%
≤30d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 71% -10.5%
≤90d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 71% 71% -10.5%
all 51 -14.8% -22.9% 29% 25% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 25% -15.0%
10% -30.3% 12% -23.1%
15% -37.0% 6% -30.5%
20% -43.2% 2% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$48 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage223d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $763 −$538 -70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$174 +34%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,489 +$558 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,042 +$235 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $638 −$630 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $556 +$66 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 +$57 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 18? Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first? Nov 17 $140 −$101 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 17 $10 −$3 -29%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Nov 17 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 17 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Nov 17 $70 +$6 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 16? Nov 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 15? Nov 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 14 $20 $0 -1%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Nov 14 $35 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 14 $35 $0 -0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Nov 11 $20 −$18 -90%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $450 −$310 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Nov 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $305 +$53 +17%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 10 $15 $0 -2%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10? Nov 10 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum ETF Flows on November 10? Nov 10 $10 −$3 -27%
BNB all time high by December 31? Nov 10 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 10? Nov 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 10 $5 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025? Nov 10 $5 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 10 $5 $0 -1%
Wizards vs. Pistons Nov 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Nov 10 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Nov 10 $3 $0 -0%
Pacers vs. Warriors Nov 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 10 $2 $0 -0%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Nov 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec Nov 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 10? Nov 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 11? Nov 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? Nov 09 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 09 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Nov 09 $10 +$9 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 12¢ $225 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $255 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $680 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $3,047 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,489 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $2,276 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,042 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $557 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $622 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $556 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $559 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 6d
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? BUY Yes $1 154d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 154d
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? BUY Yes $2 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 214d
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first? BUY 110k 21¢ $100 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? SELL Yes $7 214d
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first? SELL 110k 28¢ $18 214d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? SELL ETH 42¢ $19 214d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? SELL 150k 30¢ $49 214d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? SELL No 67¢ $54 214d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY Yes $10 215d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 150k 31¢ $50 215d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $50 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $94,000 on November 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 215d
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? BUY ETH 44¢ $20 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records