Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf27c…75b5 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 24% −$3
politics 21% −$1
economics 8% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 1% −$3
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +0.2% -9.4% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -6.4% -15.4% 37% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage274d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $16 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 23 $9 $0 -4%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 05 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Microsoft be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 07 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 27 $1 $0 +9%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $31 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $31 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $34 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $13 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $16 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 176 history records