Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf27d…e6d3 politics 180 markets active 3h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$22,125 (+37%) realized +$28,982 · open −$6,857
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +109% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%83W / 38L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5,863
other 18% −$221
politics 15% −$802
crypto 8% −$190
finance 7% +$1,048
sports 5% −$3,553
tech 3% +$2,342
economics 0% +$232
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+88.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +69.2% +53.1% 60% 55% -10.2%
≤30d 99 +131.5% +109.5% 70% 59% +15.2%
≤90d 121 +108.7% +88.8% 69% 59% +12.7%
all 121 +108.7% +88.8% 69% 59% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +88.8% 59% +12.7%
10% ← realistic here +70.7% 45% +1.9%
15% +54.2% 37% -7.9%
20% +39.1% 31% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +109% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +168% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$219 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$15,126
Realized+$28,982
Unrealized−$6,857
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses83 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions70
Markets (closed)121 / 180
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$333
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $1,380 $1,557 +$178 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $902 $1,310 +$408 (+45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $1,350 $1,222 −$128 (-9%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 23¢ 24¢ $1,098 $1,180 +$82 (+8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1,430 $1,174 −$256 (-18%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $2,365 $992 −$1,372 (-58%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $2,267 $949 −$1,318 (-58%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $885 $804 −$82 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $780 $690 −$90 (-12%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 43¢ 41¢ $491 $466 −$25 (-5%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 10¢ $385 $409 +$24 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $455 $404 −$50 (-11%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1,145 $393 −$753 (-66%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $398 $347 −$52 (-13%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $439 $299 −$140 (-32%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $753 $236 −$517 (-69%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 32¢ 16¢ $383 $198 −$185 (-48%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $229 $167 −$62 (-27%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $188 $130 −$59 (-31%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $132 $126 −$7 (-5%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $140 $125 −$15 (-11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $123 $120 −$3 (-2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 13¢ 2¢ $650 $111 −$539 (-83%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $101 $108 +$7 (+7%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $176 $105 −$70 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 27 $293 −$302 -103%
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 27 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 27 $141 −$146 -104%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 27 $40 −$38 -95%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $21 −$19 -93%
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary Jun 26 $27 +$7 +26%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 26 $6 +$10 +157%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 26 $106 +$77 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $1,073 +$277 +26%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 24 $38 +$259 +675%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 24 $637 +$419 +66%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 23 $1,967 +$1,327 +68%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $912 +$916 +100%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $225 −$40 -18%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $28 +$234 +843%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $87 +$34 +39%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 22 $4 $0 +11%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1,089 −$1,085 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,181 −$1,177 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 22 $625 +$20 +3%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,137 −$1,108 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 20 $424 −$274 -65%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $1,720 −$1,043 -61%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 20 $136 −$135 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $111 +$598 +538%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $67 −$67 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $1,384 +$89 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $2,066 +$216 +10%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 19 $503 +$79 +16%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 19 $121 +$11 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $2,383 +$2,180 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $95 +$84 +88%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +38%
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary ele Jun 18 $92 +$52 +56%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $467 +$187 +40%
Will Angus King III win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary el Jun 16 $7 +$6 +92%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 16 $212 +$966 +455%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $1,009 +$1,163 +115%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $777 −$751 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,292 +$313 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,235 −$5 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $350 +$36 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1,239 +$134 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $1,501 +$230 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $573 −$131 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $532 +$116 +22%
Will Garrett Mason win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary elec Jun 12 $37 −$98 -266%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $805 +$29 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 10h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 13h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 1¢ $2 22h
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary SELL No 47¢ $6 22h
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary SELL No 48¢ $6 22h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $15 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,125.93 · official $15,126.38 (match) · 3500 history records