Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf284…b9f9
sports · 46 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3,322,441 -405%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,318,377 · open −$6,474
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$75,860
Realized−$3,318,377
Unrealized−$6,474
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$11,650
Open positions23
Markets (closed)234 / 46
Avg bet$17,841
Trades / day964.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 23 History 234 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,096,053
7 days−$3,318,377
14 days−$3,318,377
30 days−$3,318,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $20,253 $21,073 +$819 (+4%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 78¢ 81¢ $11,511 $11,999 +$488 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 72¢ 43¢ $12,367 $7,356 −$5,011 (-41%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 84¢ 81¢ $6,300 $6,075 −$225 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $6,777 $5,957 −$820 (-12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,755 $4,750 −$5 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 94¢ 92¢ $4,230 $4,162 −$68 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $2,670 $2,719 +$49 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,235 $2,235 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 91¢ 88¢ $2,275 $2,187 −$87 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 60¢ 62¢ $2,081 $2,148 +$67 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 56¢ 45¢ $2,579 $2,072 −$507 (-20%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 56¢ 40¢ $1,400 $1,012 −$388 (-28%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $769 $769 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $468 $495 +$27 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 77¢ 56¢ $349 $250 −$99 (-28%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 94¢ $165 $163 −$2 (-1%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 78¢ 91¢ $134 $157 +$23 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 81¢ $93 $88 −$5 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? No 47¢ 3¢ $705 $46 −$658 (-93%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 52¢ 20¢ $118 $44 −$74 (-62%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 8¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Spurs 33¢ 0¢ $5,389 $0 −$5,389 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $19,994 $0 −$19,994 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Jun 12 $5,389 −$5,389 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $19,994 −$19,994 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva Jun 12 $8,136 −$8,136 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 12 $16,706 −$16,706 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $6,153 −$6,153 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $49,050 −$49,050 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $1,714 −$10,241 -598%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $175,433 −$96,726 -55%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 12 $19,200 −$19,200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,977 −$1,977 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11,055 −$11,055 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 12 $3,957 −$3,957 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $134,409 −$136,385 -102%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 12 $23,988 −$23,988 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 12 $14,381 −$14,381 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Jun 12 $695 −$695 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $12,800 −$12,800 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 12 $4,176 −$4,626 -111%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $46,449 −$46,864 -101%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $38,390 −$38,390 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $7,798 −$9,042 -116%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 12 $21,720 −$21,720 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $1,689 −$1,689 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 12 $11,564 −$11,564 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 12 $16,900 −$16,900 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4,227 −$4,227 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 12 $1,742 −$1,742 -100%
Paris: Kimberly Birrell vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $26,009 −$26,009 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar Jun 12 $47,187 −$47,187 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Jun 12 $13,555 −$14,971 -110%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov Jun 12 $34,555 −$34,555 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Jun 12 $5,290 −$5,285 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar Jun 12 $11,630 −$11,630 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $22,070 −$22,070 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 12 $26,540 −$26,540 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $14,300 −$14,300 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 12 $595 −$595 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 12 $9,275 −$9,275 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $5,580 −$5,580 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $3,655 −$3,655 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 12 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $2,565 −$2,565 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $30,600 −$30,600 -100%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,750 −$2,750 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% −$473,233
other 11% +$19,190
world 5% +$32,785
tech 2% −$707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 59¢ $59 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 59¢ $826 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 60¢ $1,212 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 82¢ $21 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $934 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,151 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $2,372 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $33 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $6 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $158 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $23 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $8 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $8 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $3 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $3 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $122 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $1,500 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $2 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $65 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $8 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $7 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 62¢ $585 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -54.7% -59.0% 7% 6% -88.7%
≤30d 234 -54.7% -59.0% 7% 6% -88.7%
≤90d 234 -54.7% -59.0% 7% 6% -88.7%
all 234 -54.7% -59.0% 7% 6% -88.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover964.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.0% 6% -88.7%
10% -62.9% 6% -89.8%
15% ← realistic here -66.5% 6% -90.8%
20% -69.8% 5% -91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,859.86 · official $75,859.87 (match) · 3500 history records