Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:28:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf285…ab24 other 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 256d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$62,087 (+14%) realized +$77,820 · open −$15,733
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%107W / 46L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$2,633per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$2,179est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$36,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 256d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$23,284
sports 35% −$5,667
politics 13% −$12,902
crypto 7% +$304
world 2% +$77
economics 1% +$110
tech 0% +$51
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +27.9% +15.7% 54% 52% -7.5%
≤30d 63 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 52% -5.9%
≤90d 103 +19.8% +8.4% 61% 51% -4.2%
all 153 +12.6% +1.9% 70% 41% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 41% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 39% -13.6%
15% -16.8% 35% -22.0%
20% -24.9% 29% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,459 vs −$2,938 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$36,412
Realized+$77,820
Unrealized−$15,733
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses107 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,179
Open positions48
Markets (closed)153 / 168
History coverage256d ⚠
Avg bet$2,633
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 42¢ 100¢ $4,200 $9,995 +$5,795 (+138%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $6,179 $6,055 −$124 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3,340 $4,440 +$1,100 (+33%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 23¢ 44¢ $2,300 $4,350 +$2,050 (+89%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $2,840 $3,420 +$580 (+20%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $2,600 $2,575 −$25 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,760 $1,790 +$30 (+2%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,740 $1,750 +$10 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 86¢ $30 $865 +$835 (+2755%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $359 $270 −$89 (-25%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $194 $127 −$67 (-34%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $114 $124 +$10 (+9%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $114 $82 −$31 (-28%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $9 $70 +$61 (+676%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $431 $59 −$372 (-86%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $38 −$485 (-93%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $431 $35 −$395 (-92%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $114 $28 −$86 (-76%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 55¢ 46¢ $21 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $13 −$510 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $13 −$510 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $13 −$510 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $13 −$510 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $523 $13 −$510 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,147 −$1,147 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12,515 +$5,251 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,600 +$3,400 +212%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,300 +$5,700 +133%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,042 +$4,958 +163%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,714 +$1,869 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9,240 −$9,240 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8,751 −$8,751 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9,900 −$9,900 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,780 +$2,220 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,000 +$17,169 +429%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,520 +$1,480 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $900 +$1,100 +122%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2,560 +$1,440 +56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,500 −$10,500 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,000 +$6,000 +150%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,777 +$223 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $306 −$306 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $960 −$960 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8,600 −$8,600 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $780 +$1,220 +156%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,940 +$4,060 +138%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,520 +$11,480 +456%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1,040 +$700 +67%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,311 +$4,789 +145%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $840 +$1,160 +138%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,309 +$11,691 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,135 −$2,135 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,465 −$3,465 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $6,500 −$6,500 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 12 $145 +$294 +203%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $2,025 +$475 +24%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $4,000 +$5,999 +150%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 11 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $33,272 +$302 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $4,960 +$3,040 +61%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 31 $8,000 +$2,000 +25%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 31 $123 −$123 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,891 30m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $192 32m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 33m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 33m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 34m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $338 40m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 45m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 46m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 47m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 48m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 48m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 48m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 48m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 50m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 53m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 54m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 58m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 59m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $287 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $67 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,412.39 · official $36,412.39 (match) · 3460 history records