Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf289…141b other 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+81%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
sports 32% +$27
world 16% −$4
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+81.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +100.3% +81.2% 38% 38% +62.5%
≤30d 16 +100.3% +81.2% 38% 38% +62.5%
≤90d 16 +100.3% +81.2% 38% 38% +62.5%
all 16 +100.3% +81.2% 38% 38% +62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.2% 38% +62.5%
10% +63.9% 38% +47.0%
15% +48.0% 38% +32.8%
20% +33.5% 38% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +188% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +212%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +258%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records