Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf28a…e3dc other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,768 (-61%) realized −$2,760 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$2,876
other 15% +$72
sports 2% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.7% +27.3% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤30d 8 +40.7% +27.3% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤90d 14 -3.2% -12.4% 29% 29% -75.0%
all 14 -3.2% -12.4% 29% 29% -75.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 29% -75.0%
10% -20.8% 29% -77.4%
15% -28.5% 21% -79.5%
20% -35.5% 21% -81.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$302 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$2,760
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage156d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 +$63 +308%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$136 +167%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $222 +$75 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 11 $2,727 −$2,042 -75%
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 11 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 10 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this Apr 09 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in Apr 02 $1 $0 -21%
Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this el Apr 01 $150 −$74 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $84 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 62¢ $39 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $27 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $55 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $110 4d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 26¢ $151 77d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 77d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $20 77d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 77d
Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this BUY Yes $0 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.44 · official $192.44 (match) · 163 history records