Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

F2 0xf28c…cdf8 finance 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 51d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable finance specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,063 (+4%) realized +$12,778 · open −$7,715

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate75%12W / 4L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$7,182per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$22,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-16.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+6.9%	-3.2%	100%	0%	-3.2%
≤30d	14	-10.5%	-19.0%	79%	36%	-0.2%
≤90d	16	-7.7%	-16.5%	75%	38%	-1.0%
all	16	-7.7%	-16.5%	75%	38%	-1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.5%	38%	-1.0%
10% ← realistic here	-24.5%	25%	-10.5%
15%	-31.8%	6%	-19.1%
20%	-38.5%	0%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$895 vs −$187 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×14.34 per $1 lost it wins $14.34

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage

Net worth$22,289

Realized+$12,778

Unrealized−$7,715

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses12 / 4

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage51d

Avg bet$7,182

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	92¢	85¢	$16,314	$15,157	−$1,157 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	83¢	46¢	$11,181	$6,125	−$5,056 (-45%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	18¢	7¢	$2,509	$1,007	−$1,502 (-60%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Jun 20	$193	+$13	+7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	Jun 15	$10,047	+$1,138	+11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	Jun 12	$10,028	+$561	+6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	Jun 12	$2,029	+$911	+45%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Jun 04	$90	−$90	-100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 03	$445	−$428	-96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Jun 02	$27,644	+$291	+1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Jun 01	$14,884	+$4,475	+30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	May 30	$6,571	+$1,715	+26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	May 27	$4,070	+$608	+15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	May 26	$6,509	+$72	+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	May 25	$3,939	+$131	+3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	May 25	$221	−$214	-97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	May 24	$9,868	+$798	+8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	May 20	$9,723	−$18	-0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	May 20	$135	+$31	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$57	2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$143	2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	15¢	$4	2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	98¢	$206	2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	20¢	$8	3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$193	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$10,065	6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$85	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$10,000	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$4,392	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$615	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$367	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$1	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$500	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$184	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$99	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?	SELL No	99¢	$19	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	90¢	$0	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY No	90¢	$191	8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$709	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$344	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$13	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$820	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$342	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$1,048	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$18	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$13	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$229	9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY No	82¢	$4,698	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,289.33 · official $22,290.75 (match) · 82 history records