Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf28e…0bb1 sports 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,985 (-28%) realized −$2,948 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%92W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$776now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,300
7 days−$3,058
14 days−$3,026
30 days−$3,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -55.5% -59.8% 11% 11% -66.0%
≤30d 178 -7.5% -16.3% 37% 37% -43.8%
≤90d 247 -7.9% -16.7% 37% 37% -39.1%
all 247 -7.9% -16.7% 37% 37% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 37% -39.1%
10% -24.6% 36% -44.9%
15% -31.9% 32% -50.3%
20% -38.6% 26% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$44 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$776
Realized−$2,948
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses92 / 155
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage31d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $813 $776 −$37 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,229 −$1,200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $767 −$750 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $664 −$650 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 +$438 +214%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $247 +$954 +386%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw? Jun 08 $18 +$32 +180%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $28 +$21 +74%
Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 1.5 May 25 $19 +$31 +165%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 May 25 $14 +$36 +255%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 May 25 $26 +$24 +95%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? May 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Avaí FC vs. Goiás EC end in a draw? May 24 $23 −$22 -98%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 May 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 May 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $29 +$20 +68%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 2.5 May 24 $15 +$35 +241%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 24 $35 +$15 +45%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 24 $9 −$8 -98%
CS Huancayo vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 May 24 $10 +$40 +413%
Will CS Huancayo vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$30 +145%
US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza: O/U 1.5 May 24 $24 +$26 +109%
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5 May 24 $14 +$36 +262%
Will AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC end in a draw? May 24 $22 −$22 -99%
AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $24 −$24 -100%
CS Huancayo vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 May 24 $23 +$27 +116%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $17 −$16 -98%
Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $36 −$36 -99%
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5 May 24 $26 +$24 +96%
Will Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw? May 24 $9 +$41 +442%
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 1.5 May 24 $38 +$12 +30%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Real Zaragoza end in a draw? May 24 $8 +$42 +556%
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 1.5 May 24 $36 +$14 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $835 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,229 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $767 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $460 22h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $206 23h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 26h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 37h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $642 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,201 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $153 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 26d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $14 26d
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 26d
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $28 26d
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 26d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 26d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $4 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $776.30 · official $776.30 (match) · 490 history records