Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf292…3636 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-13%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$227
other 29% +$78
sports 7% +$45
world 7% −$36
politics 7% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 34% -7.1%
≤30d 51 +9.5% -0.9% 41% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 53 +8.8% -1.6% 42% 34% -18.3%
all 54 +6.8% -3.4% 41% 33% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 33% -25.2%
10% -12.6% 30% -32.3%
15% -21.1% 24% -38.9%
20% -28.8% 19% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage225d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$31 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$25 -61%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $58 +$29 +50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 −$36 -30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 +$123 +295%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$8 +51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$21 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$90 +1747%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 +$45 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records