Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf294…25eb other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,492 (-1%) realized −$1,494 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$145
politics 41% −$73
sports 11% −$1,287
world 4% −$6
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 67 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 131 +0.5% -9.1% 18% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 11% -10.4%
10% -17.8% 11% -19.0%
15% -25.7% 10% -26.8%
20% -33.0% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,580) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$23 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,405
Realized−$1,494
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $719 $722 +$3 (+0%)
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $684 $683 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $3,352 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $688 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,881 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,277 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,672 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,367 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 04 $2,898 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,980 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,699 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,517 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $920 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 22 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,659 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,350 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,586 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $968 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $2,373 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,440 −$3 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,070 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,317 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $4,682 −$5 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2,267 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,917 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $684 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $686 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $687 5h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $685 24h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 27h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $587 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $588 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $687 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $688 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $561 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $561 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $690 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $691 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $720 11d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $935 12d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $936 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,411 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,412 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,410 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,412 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,403 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,406 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,349 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,336 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,337 21d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $815 22d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $816 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,405.25 · official $1,405.25 (match) · 416 history records