Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf295…03e5 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 655d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$109 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate66%77W / 39L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$4
14 days−$23
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$119
politics 32% −$4
sports 20% −$1
world 5% −$21
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 60% -11.0%
≤30d 39 -24.2% -31.4% 38% 33% -28.0%
≤90d 42 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 33% -26.3%
all 116 -8.7% -17.4% 66% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 17% -8.2%
10% -25.3% 8% -16.9%
15% -32.5% 5% -25.0%
20% -39.2% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

655d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses77 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)116 / 123
History coverage655d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-30%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $17 +$9 +54%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 +$14 +145%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $34 +$7 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $11 −$10 -93%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$1 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$1 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $7 −$2 -32%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $20 −$11 -57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$5 +60%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $13 −$6 -48%
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Jun 03 $9 −$1 -11%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $9 −$6 -67%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close Jun 02 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 −$4 -21%
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch? Jun 01 $1 $0 -42%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? May 31 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2 −$1 -53%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 30 $3 $0 -4%
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch May 29 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 29 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 28 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31? Jun 01 $102 +$13 +13%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 08 $90 +$12 +13%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29? Apr 30 $72 +$18 +25%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-15? Apr 17 $25 −$25 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Feb 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Jay-Z arrested in 2024? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 01 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 01 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 33¢ $10 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $17 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $20 2h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals SELL Yes 49¢ $24 24h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $4 24h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 24h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 24h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $2 24h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 75¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 82¢ $34 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $34 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $11 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $11 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $13 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 74¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $4 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 7d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 80¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.23 · official $40.23 (match) · 363 history records