Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf295…9646 crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-9%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%126W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$288
14 days−$276
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$211
other 6% −$34
weather 5% −$63
world 3% +$28
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -18.2% -26.0% 54% 25% -22.4%
≤30d 216 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 34% -20.6%
≤90d 216 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 34% -20.6%
all 216 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 34% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 34% -20.6%
10% -26.3% 24% -28.2%
15% -33.4% 17% -35.1%
20% -40.0% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses126 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage22d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$2 -4%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$19 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$33 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $18 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 548 history records