Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F2 0xf295…b287 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$402
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$370
other 40% −$240
crypto 9% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 29% -5.8%
≤30d 7 -2.9% -12.2% 43% 29% -5.8%
≤90d 8 -15.1% -23.1% 38% 25% -6.6%
all 10 -32.0% -38.5% 30% 20% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 20% -7.2%
10% -44.4% 10% -16.1%
15% -49.8% 10% -24.2%
20% -54.7% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$63 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage123d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $701 +$119 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,160 +$41 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $402 +$374 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $534 −$132 -25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $233 −$16 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $312 −$13 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $231 −$227 -98%
Spread: Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5) Apr 01 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $820 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $701 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $699 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $501 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $502 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $659 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $775 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $402 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $402 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $534 44h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 59¢ $216 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $233 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $298 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $312 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $231 2d
Spread: Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5) BUY Oklahoma Sooners 65¢ $28 81d
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio BUY Yes 34¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $13 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records