Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf295…94e9 crypto 360 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-7%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%111W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$50
crypto 43% −$18
sports 4% −$21
finance 0% −$6
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 64% -1.3%
≤30d 11 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 64% -1.3%
≤90d 186 -24.1% -31.3% 28% 28% -6.3%
all 356 -15.4% -23.4% 31% 29% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 29% -8.2%
10% -30.8% 28% -17.0%
15% -37.5% 24% -25.0%
20% -43.6% 21% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses111 / 245
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)356 / 360
History coverage94d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $171 $174 +$3 (+2%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $171 −$2 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $226 +$116 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $122 +$61 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$48 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $206 −$156 -76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $210 +$99 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $48 +$24 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Waratahs win? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CS Cartaginés win on 2026-04-01? Apr 04 $1 +$2 +197%
Will CD Guastatoya win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Malacateco vs. CD Guastatoya end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cambridge United FC vs. Swindon Town FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 +$3 +276%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Swindon Town FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Santos FC vs. Clube do Remo end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Castellón vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Cúcuta Deportivo FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Sporting FC vs. CS Cartaginés end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $1 +$1 +68%
Will SC Internacional vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 02 $1 +$5 +509%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Botafogo FR vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. Llaneros FC end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Fluminense FC vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will EC Bahia vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Burgos CF vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw? Apr 01 $2 +$3 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $169 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $172 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $171 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $75 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 6h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $122 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $74 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $49 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $111 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 32d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.30 · official $260.30 (match) · 837 history records