Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf298…ada5 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$193 (+0%) realized +$250 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,603per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$1,505est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤30d 10 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
≤90d 10 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
all 10 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 50% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 50% -11.2%
10% -26.6% 50% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -33.7% 40% -27.5%
20% -40.2% 10% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,389 vs −$3,646 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,443
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1,505
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6,603
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 57¢ 56¢ $5,000 $4,955 −$45 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $1,500 $1,487 −$13 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6,083 −$833 -14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5,048 +$2,327 +46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $10,084 +$3,805 +38%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $5,066 +$2,439 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9,273 +$2,483 +27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6,698 −$6,677 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $6,560 −$2,102 -32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9,108 +$5,892 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,675 −$4,600 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $4,975 −$4,019 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,518 12m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $5,064 50m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 44¢ $4,916 51m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5,250 51m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $5,084 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6,083 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $5,042 14h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 72¢ $5,042 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $7,505 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5,048 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 56¢ $5,066 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $5,827 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $5,928 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4,217 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $93 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $26 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $256 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $43 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $37 18h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4,574 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 38¢ $4 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 38¢ $14 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $1,431 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $49 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $2,484 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $1 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $2,408 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $128 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $35 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,442.55 · official $6,443.43 (match) · 43 history records