Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F2 0xf29a…3122 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,337 (+11%) realized +$1,680 · open −$343
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$3,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,348
other 18% +$1,214
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+78.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +97.4% +78.6% 42% 42% +25.2%
≤30d 31 +97.4% +78.6% 42% 42% +25.2%
≤90d 31 +97.4% +78.6% 42% 42% +25.2%
all 31 +97.4% +78.6% 42% 42% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.6% 42% +25.2%
10% ← realistic here +61.5% 42% +13.2%
15% +45.9% 42% +2.3%
20% +31.6% 42% -7.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +196% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$230 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,357
Realized+$1,680
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions12
Markets (closed)31 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 54¢ 52¢ $1,099 $1,052 −$47 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 33¢ 30¢ $500 $462 −$38 (-8%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 55¢ $500 $462 −$38 (-8%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 20¢ 16¢ $250 $206 −$44 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $133 −$86 -64%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $197 −$144 -73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $747 −$730 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $609 +$641 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $817 −$800 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $205 −$178 -87%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $133 −$130 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$92 +91%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $158 +$360 +227%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $41 +$146 +355%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $397 +$657 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia vs. S Jun 18 $185 +$1,984 +1073%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia vs. S Jun 18 $154 +$853 +555%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $407 −$400 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 +$611 +596%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will South Africa Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $269 −$264 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colo Jun 18 $31 +$202 +657%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $302 +$344 +114%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$282 +549%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $141 +$277 +197%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $101 35m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $47 45m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under $53 45m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. SELL $0 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $197 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $506 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $133 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $307 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 11h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $154 11h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 20¢ $256 11h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $510 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $1,014 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY $185 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $747 11h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will United States vs. Australia end in a dr BUY $123 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. BUY $206 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Wil BUY $134 11h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Will United States vs. Australia end in a dr BUY $51 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $204 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $102 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $408 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,356.68 · official $3,666.68 · 71 history records