Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf29e…1352 weather 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-18%) realized −$160 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$174
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -23.9% -31.1% 51% 37% -27.0%
≤30d 43 -23.9% -31.1% 51% 37% -27.0%
≤90d 43 -23.9% -31.1% 51% 37% -27.0%
all 43 -23.9% -31.1% 51% 37% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 37% -27.0%
10% -37.7% 19% -34.0%
15% -43.7% 9% -40.4%
20% -49.3% 5% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? No 82¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? No 76¢ 67¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 61¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 19¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $10 13h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL No 98¢ $23 25h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes 71¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL No 21¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 10¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? SELL No 48¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.13 · official $25.13 (match) · 90 history records