Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a0…b1b0 sports 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%21W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$21
other 24% −$8
politics 18% −$9
economics 10% −$4
crypto 8% −$3
world 4% −$11
culture 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 166 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses21 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage159d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 13 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $39 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $361 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $275 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $257 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $55 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $376 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $201 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 01 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 31 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $198 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $144 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $152 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 27 $306 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $247 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $305 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $151 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $54 53m
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $54 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 11d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 11d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $51 19d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $51 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $56 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $56 33d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $52 64d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $52 65d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 65d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $56 65d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 95¢ $38 65d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 65d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 65d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 65d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 65d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 66d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 66d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 66d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $61 66d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $61 66d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $52 66d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 66d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $49 66d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $49 67d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $57 67d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $57 67d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $54 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 658 history records