Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F2 0xf2a0…7e99 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$7 (+17%) realized +$4 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+43.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+58.0%	+43.0%	50%	50%	+44.4%
≤30d	2	+58.0%	+43.0%	50%	50%	+44.4%
≤90d	2	+58.0%	+43.0%	50%	50%	+44.4%
all	2	+58.0%	+43.0%	50%	50%	+44.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.0%	50%	+44.4%
10%	+29.3%	50%	+30.6%
15%	+16.8%	50%	+18.0%
20%	+5.3%	50%	+6.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +60% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	69¢	$30	$33	+$3 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$5	+$11	+216%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	31¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.57 · official $32.58 (match) · 4 history records