Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf2a3…ac1a crypto 589 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$271 (-3%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%283W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day275.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$223
14 days−$512
30 days−$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$512
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 47% -20.3%
≤30d 589 -7.1% -15.9% 48% 43% -14.2%
≤90d 589 -7.1% -15.9% 48% 43% -14.2%
all 589 -7.1% -15.9% 48% 43% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover275.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 43% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 37% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 29% -29.9%
20% -38.1% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses283 / 306
Open positions0
Markets (closed)589 / 589
History coverage8d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day275.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 589 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.60 · official $2.60 (match) · 2884 history records