Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2a5…3942 other 55 markets active 3d ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$151 (-40%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$191
sports 32% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.5% -12.7% 15% 15% -47.5%
≤30d 53 -3.5% -12.7% 15% 15% -47.5%
≤90d 53 -3.5% -12.7% 15% 15% -47.5%
all 53 -3.5% -12.7% 15% 15% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 15% -47.5%
10% -21.0% 15% -52.5%
15% -28.7% 15% -57.1%
20% -35.7% 15% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage157d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $6 +$25 +414%
Croatia to win the second half? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$37 +982%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Gabriel Magalhães: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Croatia to win the second half? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 17¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $5 4d
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records