Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F2 0xf2a6…3dd1 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$980 (+9%) realized +$961 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 35L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days−$1,084
14 days−$571
30 days+$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$1,754
other 21% −$297
economics 9% −$890
world 2% −$131
crypto 1% −$8
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.7% -23.7% 44% 44% -36.1%
≤30d 57 +60.8% +45.5% 54% 54% -0.2%
≤90d 68 +39.2% +26.0% 49% 49% -6.3%
all 68 +39.2% +26.0% 49% 49% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.0% 49% -6.3%
10% +13.9% 49% -15.2%
15% +2.9% 46% -23.4%
20% -7.2% 37% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +94% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$113 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$961
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage38d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $115 $136 +$21 (+18%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 +$94 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$142 +139%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$90 +177%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $724 −$690 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 +$101 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$42 +41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $133 −$30 -23%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $59 +$42 +71%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $279 +$517 +185%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $123 +$118 +96%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $505 −$148 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$27 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $213 +$238 +112%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $815 +$574 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $662 −$650 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $20 +$24 +116%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $203 +$222 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 10h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $182 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $36 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $244 27h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 27h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $143 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.86 · official $333.86 (match) · 162 history records