Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F2 0xf2a9…fdb6 crypto 639 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$357 (+0%) realized +$1,274 · open −$917
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate81%515W / 117L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$67
14 days−$72
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$563
politics 5% −$1,048
other 2% −$51
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$92
tech 1% −$12
sports 0% −$22
world 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 20% -11.0%
≤30d 98 -4.0% -13.2% 78% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 351 -3.6% -12.8% 82% 6% -9.3%
all 632 -3.0% -12.2% 81% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 13% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 6% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$3,270
Realized+$1,274
Unrealized−$917
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses515 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)632 / 639
History coverage138d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $1,550 $2,466 +$916 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $1,550 $634 −$916 (-59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $54 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $326 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $368 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $741 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $556 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $576 +$10 +2%
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -89%
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 24 $14 −$10 -72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $26 −$14 -55%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $373 −$97 -26%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 18 $108 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $527 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $211 +$2 +1%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $266 −$19 -7%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 12 $87 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $482 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $355 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $833 +$27 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $152 −$116 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $1,152 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $380 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $43 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $462 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $871 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $141 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $115 −$85 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $1,026 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $346 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $811 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,242 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $271 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $332 +$4 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $10 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 05 $508 −$11 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$9 -29%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 05 $12 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $1,131 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $736 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $400 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $160 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 2h
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? SELL No 21¢ $4 14h
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 72¢ $14 17h
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 17h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 23h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $26 43h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 34¢ $167 5d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 37¢ $109 5d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 46¢ $138 5d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 47¢ $235 5d
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $104 6d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,269.90 · official $3,270.21 (match) · 2286 history records