Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2ad…fa3f crypto 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+0%) realized +$291 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%248W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$561now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$11
14 days+$26
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 52 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 156 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
all 249 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$738) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×40.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10162.21 per $1 lost it wins $10162.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$561
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses248 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 251
History coverage162d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $399 $399 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $162 $162 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $558 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $254 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $245 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $265 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $243 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $264 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $252 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $281 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $248 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $283 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $527 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $525 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $258 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $265 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $282 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $516 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $201 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $321 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $258 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $258 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $258 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $514 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $80 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $248 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $206 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $199 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $78 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $257 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $299 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $254 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $254 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $252 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $299 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $350 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $248 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $245 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $299 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $265 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $279 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $243 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.32 · official $561.32 (match) · 562 history records