Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ae…74c0 crypto 1228 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$14,725 (-10%) realized −$2,634 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%955W / 271L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$187est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$26
14 days−$1,577
30 days−$1,577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$995
other 19% −$933
sports 13% −$705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +5.3% -4.8% 83% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 246 -0.5% -9.9% 79% 44% -17.4%
≤90d 1226 -1.7% -11.0% 78% 38% -11.2%
all 1226 -1.7% -11.0% 78% 38% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 38% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 19% -19.7%
15% -27.3% 9% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$63 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$2,634
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses955 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$187
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1226 / 1228
History coverage61d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod win on 2026-05-11? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$17 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$16 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$20 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $211 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$36 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $221 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$32 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $122 +$44 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $306 −$194 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $321 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$35 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $230 −$228 -99%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $125 −$117 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $92 +$8 +8%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $85 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $82 −$45 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $61 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $71 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $129 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $12 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $134 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $117 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 38m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $106 39m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $299 42m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 45m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 48m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $111 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.02 · official $105.02 (match) · 3500 history records