Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ae…bdbf crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 23% -44.8%
≤30d 26 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 23% -44.8%
≤90d 26 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 23% -44.8%
all 26 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 23% -44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 23% -44.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 19% -50.1%
15% -22.9% 19% -54.9%
20% -30.5% 15% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 6¢ 14¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+147%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $54 −$9 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $58 −$38 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $56 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $39 +$28 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$82 +1291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.51 · official $79.65 · 130 history records