Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ae…0864 sports 1018 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$535 (-1%) realized −$369 · open −$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate69%699W / 310L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$610est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$78
14 days+$491
30 days−$602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,894
other 1% −$108
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +9.2% -1.2% 73% 71% -6.6%
≤30d 297 +1.3% -8.3% 69% 67% -13.3%
≤90d 1009 -0.4% -9.9% 69% 66% -12.2%
all 1009 -0.4% -9.9% 69% 66% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 66% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 51% -20.6%
15% -26.4% 33% -28.3%
20% -33.6% 18% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$48 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$369
Unrealized−$166
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses699 / 310
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$610
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1009 / 1018
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1009 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 78¢ $231 $232 +$2 (+1%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+42%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 61¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 67¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 236 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 19 $0 $0 +13%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $53 +$27 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $600 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $7 +$4 +52%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $26 +$14 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $36 +$14 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $43 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $17 +$13 +76%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $46 +$14 +32%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$16 +50%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $40 +$17 +42%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $54 +$14 +25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +49%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$17 +76%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $85 +$13 +15%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $33 +$17 +50%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $95 −$20 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$8 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $22 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$13 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 +$18 +146%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$14 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $16 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 +$16 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$10 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $20 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $233 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $80 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $8 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 73¢ $22 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $12 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 80¢ $60 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 69¢ $21 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 74¢ $52 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 69¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $610 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 78¢ $23 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $19 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 68¢ $14 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $600 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 65¢ $7 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $20 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $14 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 80¢ $24 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 15h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $26 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 33¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 62¢ $12 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 79¢ $24 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.87 · official $245.87 (match) · 3500 history records