Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2b7…031c crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$370 (-8%) realized −$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,169
other 16% +$492
sports 14% +$169
politics 8% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +54.3% +39.6% 100% 100% +23.7%
≤30d 5 +31.2% +18.7% 80% 80% -2.6%
≤90d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 44% 44% -75.8%
all 31 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 42% -16.2%
10% -25.2% 42% -24.2%
15% -32.4% 26% -31.6%
20% -39.0% 19% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$93 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage609d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $30 +$10 +35%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $52 +$14 +26%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $9 +$11 +133%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 29 $16 +$4 +24%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $45 −$28 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $310 −$308 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $367 −$201 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $296 −$275 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 06 $190 −$187 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 09 $234 +$66 +28%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $89 −$4 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $25 +$75 +300%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Oct 31 $43 +$44 +103%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Oct 30 $76 +$33 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on October 24? Oct 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $103 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 24 $492 +$390 +79%
Solana Up or Down - October 23, 2AM ET Oct 23 $52 −$30 -58%
Solana Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET Oct 23 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET Oct 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum above $2,700 on May 23? May 23 $619 +$211 +34%
Total crypto market cap over $4 trillion on Jan 20? Dec 21 $315 +$5 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on December 20? Dec 19 $218 +$98 +45%
Solana above $225 on December 20? Dec 19 $526 −$309 -59%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $349 +$177 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $7 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $22 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $24 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $26 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $0 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $7 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $11 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $45 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 6¢ $11 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 15¢ $0 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 15¢ $46 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 15¢ $7 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 15¢ $15 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 15¢ $7 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $156 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $1 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $1 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $2 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $2 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $0 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $3 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $1 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? BUY No 17¢ $1 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $60.00 (match) · 183 history records